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The agency cited falling property rates and US casualty challenges. -
There may be pain yet to come as claims start to bleed into an underpriced market.
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Reinsurers are pushing for cat signings and hoping the new pricing floor will hold.
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Insurance Insider looks at key drivers of supply-demand dynamics in global specialty markets.
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Tom Wakefield says there is scope for opportunistic reinsurance purchases in 2026.
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The pricing battle has been played out but the extent of new demand will only show up in 2026.
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The influx of capital, combined with a quiet wind season, led to favorable conditions for cedants during 1.1 renewals.
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Price has become a key differentiator in marine and energy.
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Cedants pursued property renewals “aggressively” amid excess reinsurer capacity.
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The market is conceding some ground on wordings, after a tightening of conditions post-Ukraine.
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Global insurance premiums reached an all-time high of $15.3bn by year end 2024.
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All-risks premium increases are now understood to be in the 15% to 20% range.
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The chief of market performance urged underwriters not to follow the herd.
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Despite 2025 losses, carriers have not secured desired rate increases.
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Willis reports that the mining market has softened at a ‘considerable rate’ this year.
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The sector also faces a potential $700mn loss from a fatal Indonesian mining catastrophe.
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Loss activity in the upstream market remains benign, adding to softening.
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The agency cited moderating premium growth and selective underwriting capacity as factors behind the downgrade.
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Executives also agreed that facilitisation is a structural market change.
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Innovation emerged as the critical target for attracting new business to London.
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The Aspen exec highlighted the London market’s long-standing reputation for innovation.
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Patrick Tiernan was addressing 400+ delegates at the London Market Conference.
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From top-line challenges to finding new ways to scale, 2025 has been a year of market shifts.
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Rate decreases are often in double digits, but high loss trends and systemic risk persist.
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Brokers may encourage clients to capitalise on falling rates by boosting coverage.
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Property pricing fell by 8%, while casualty rate increases tapered to 3%.
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Property, cyber and workers’ comp rates were all down mid-single digits, offsetting casualty hardening.
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Property underwriters are ‘competing fiercely’ to access mining risks.
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As both carriers and reinsurers deal with softening markets, all eyes are on hurricane-prone areas.
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The veteran underwriter said market conditions are still ‘robust’.
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Global pricing is now 22% below the mid-2022 peak.
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Cedants target methods of reducing pressure on earnings as reinsurers chase growth.
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Scale is increasingly becoming a differentiator for reinsurance carriers, the broker noted.
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Geopolitical turbulence brings new challenges that primary specialty lines carriers urgently need to address.
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Being conservative and stable is the name of the reinsurer’s game.
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Despite high profile losses, there’s ample capacity in marine and aviation, while PV has seen healthy profits.
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Litigation funders are promoting “aggressive” tactics in the UK, Holland and Israel.
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The company, however, sets a high bar on making a move.
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Earnings covers do not need to equal aggregate reinsurance deals, the broker said.
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Reinsurers are ready to draw a line under a worsening claim outlook across the casualty market.
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Excess capacity will sustain softer rates, as organic growth challenges lead to more M&A chatter.
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Reinsurance CEO Wakefield said reinsurance structures may evolve for prolonged growth.
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Agency reactions ranged from Fitch revising down its sector outlook to AM Best keeping a positive outlook.
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Terms are expected to hold, underpinning the stronger recent performance of reinsurers.
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Rates will remain elevated in a period of structurally higher risk premia.
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Growth in the SME sector could help stabilize the market, however.
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Cyber reinsurance supply has continued to outstrip demand during 2025.
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Some 32% of survey respondents expect property cat rates to fall by more than 7.5%.
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The ratings agency was presenting its outlook ahead of the Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous.
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Last year marked the second consecutive year in which carriers made a positive return.
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The broker said it was achievable to place a $2bn vertical limit in the London market.
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This is the first rate filing to use the recently approved Verisk model.
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As rate reductions present headwinds, firms are expected to moderate expansion.
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The carrier booked top-line growth of 2% in H1.
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Rates were down 3.9% across its portfolio in the first half of 2025.
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Market leaders Atradius and Coface have both received in-principle approvals for a Lloyd’s syndicate.
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However, group organic growth among public brokers has slowed to pre-pandemic levels.
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Price decreases became lower throughout Q2, however, averaging 3% in April, 2.3% in May and 1.6% in June.
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The broker said that there could be a flattening of rate decreases in the hull market in 2026.
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The model becomes the second in the state to get approval to affect ratemaking applications.
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Renewable energy premium written in London and international markets amounts to $2bn.
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Demand and growth opportunities remain ample despite competitive pressures.
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Sources said the downstream energy market is unlikely to turn a profit in 2025.
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Marsh’s property book saw an average decline of 9% in Q1, a trend that appears to have continued through Q2.
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The soft market continued through H1 2025, especially on shared programs.
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Gallagher Re’s Lara Mowery said mid-year renewals marked the “beginnings of capacity” emerging.
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Cedants were able to “challenge the status quo” with aggregates back on the table, the broker said.
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Premium rose across the top 15 P&C risks in 2024.
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Is the ransomware threat really getting worse – or just more visible?
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Property rates are coming under further pressure, while liability is being buoyed by ongoing challenging loss trends.
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The cost comes in at $530.6bn, roughly $20mn lower than budgeted.
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SRCC exposures are being studied more closely but fixing aggregation issues is a challenge.
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The Beazley CUO said geopolitics would determine cyber market pricing.
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Coverage has broadened while limits have increased, the broker said.
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Some segments are moving faster than anticipated, but overall, it remains a mixed bag.
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A 20% increase in FHCF retention levels sent cedants to the private market.
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The change reflects the company’s growing profile within the MS&AD group.
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The CEO transition is already visible in messaging on growth as rate change picks up.
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The CUO noted that market-wide rate change in Q1 was down 3.3%, coming in below plan.
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Soft conditions have led to “less acute" underwriting discipline, sources said.
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Sentiment at the ILS Connect event hosted by Insurance Insider ILS was generally positive.
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The executive criticised the ongoing underrepresentation of women in senior leadership roles.
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The reinsurer said the market was unprofitable and pricing needed to increase immediately.
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The carrier reported a 3% price reduction across London market business.
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The broker said the burgeoning class of business was still finding its stride.
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CEO Adrian Cox said the market could turn on “unexpected events”.
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Cyber and property experienced the largest price reductions.
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The broker's share price dipped 11% in morning trading after its Q1 earnings missed expectations.
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The only major product line to see rate increases was casualty.
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California wildfires had ‘little or no impact’ on property cat pricing at April 1, Dean Klisura said.
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Technical pricing is insufficient in some areas and inflation is biting into margins.
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Softening in the upstream market has also accelerated beyond expectations.
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Despite a softening market, carriers still have belief in their profitability, sources said.
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The Gallagher Re executive called on the market to “prepare to grow sustainably together”.
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Lloyd’s has been likened to a “toothless tiger” in its crackdown efforts.
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The rating allows IQUW to access $1bn in group capital.
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The broker said that businesses not investing in AI capabilities would be left behind.
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Lloyd’s hopes to protect healthy pricing, but focus is on broader structural market shifts.
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CUO Rachel Turk said some syndicates were showing a “mismatch” in ambition and strategy.
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Sources warned of the erosion of underwriting margins after a string of strong years.
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The combined ratio improved by 0.5 points to 75.7%.
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The insurance commissioner said the carrier has not shown the need for price increases.
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The event now includes a casualty portion and has officially been re-branded as the Property and Casualty Symposium.
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Guy Carp CEO Dean Klisura said LA wildfires could slow rate reductions at 1 April.
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Panellists discussed the softening market, and what would flip the switch on rates.
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Market softening means exploiting hardening niches is the name of the game.
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It has been a “good” bad renewal for cat reinsurers, with attachments likely to endure in the medium term.
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In part two of our 2025 outlook, we explore the drivers of carrier M&A and recreating the ESG agenda.
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Certain new and old themes will re-emerge this year as the balance of power shifts.
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Supply generally exceeded demand and trading relationships were ‘strong’, CEO Tom Wakefield said.
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CEO Trevor Carvey said the revision reflected Conduit’s “favourable reception”.
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Rates are turning negative, and the balance of power is shifting towards the brokers.
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Aggregates that are featuring in the reinsurance market are not the low-attaching ones of prior years, he added.
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Annual growth in demand for tax insurance ranged between 25% to 40%, sources said.
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A resurgence in IPO activity may help provide new business for underwriters and reduce competition.
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The CEO was responding to comments made by Chubb’s Evan Greenberg.
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Overall, insurance rates fell by 1%, led by competition in property.
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The broker is discussing the potential for "smart frequency solutions" with reinsurers.
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Aon executive Daniele de Bosini said reinforced infrastructure had mitigated the impact of recent disaster events.
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European property cat rates stabilised and, in some cases, decreased this year following corrections in 2023.
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Continental cedants are looking for support for third and fourth events.
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CEO John Doyle said global property rates were down 2% versus flat in Q2.
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Contrary to expectations that US casualty would dominate the conversations, Milton took the spotlight.
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Space insurers are running at a near-200% loss ratio after booking losses of over $1bn in 2023.
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M&A levels have increased 23% year-to-date compared to 2023, according to Gallagher Specialty.
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Treaty premiums have risen, while casualty premiums remain restrained.
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Pricing expectations are still not aligned on higher-risk coverage options.
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Reinsurers are high on their ‘redemption arc’. The question is – how long will it last?
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The ratings agency said the global reinsurance sector is in “an even stronger position than a year ago”.
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The rate change will be implemented in November.
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Property underwriters warn of complacency in how quickly margins can erode.
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However, some syndicates are planning more significant growth following hires or strategic shifts.
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Lancashire was the only carrier to see double-digit growth in insurance revenue for H1.
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The action follows the completed acquisition of Accredited by Onex Partners.
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The board of directors has voted for a 10% rate hike.
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In messaging to the market, the cyber insurer described the rating environment as “stable and sustainable”.
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Q2 was the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year price decreases.
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The insurance sector’s RoE is expected to exceed 10% next year.
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Accounts with poor performance records are expected to see flat to 20% rate increases for cat coverage, according to Floridian broker Brown & Brown’s Q3 Market Trends report.
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Availability of ILS has so far fulfilled investor demand.
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Reinsurers were more willing to support lower layers ahead of 1 July, the broker said.
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The broker said another strong year would drive pressure for “reasonably significant rate reductions” next year.
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Mid-sized 2023-24 cat losses versus ready capacity held the market in equilibrium.
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Challenges such as climate change and civil litigation remain troubling.
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The ratings agency noted robust profit margins for reinsurers.
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Self-insurance has taken $25bn more premium out of the market than five years ago.
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The hard market has not burst the MGA bubble – and now interest is on the rise again.
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From here on out, insurers will likely have to rely on the strength of their individual stories.
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Prices for programs that renewed in both Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 decreased 15%.
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Transatlantic competition, rising valuations and price undercutting set a challenging scene.
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Retentions and coverage could be affected by future adverse claims trends.
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The Corporation is walking a tightrope between encouraging further growth whilst maintaining discipline.
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The executive said that adequate rates were encouraging insurers to grow.
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Attention is fixed on how competition will impact pricing in H2.
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Underwriters are pushing for rate rises, but competition is increasing.
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The broker said softening was emerging in some lines, but cat risks remain challenging.
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Falling rates in finpro and increased competition in property drove the trend.
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The ratings agency also affirmed the reinsurer’s A- FSR rating.
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Property rate increases decelerated to 6% in Q4, compared to slowdowns of 7% in Q3 and 10% in Q2 2023.
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Sources said that the market was not sufficiently profitable to concede ground on pricing.
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The flight of reinsurers to mid- and upper layers of programmes is influenced by recent experience but softening at this level can be seen as a risky move.
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European rates on line increased by 7.60%, while in the US prices were up 5.25%.
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The broker’s report also hailed the best risk-adjusted margins for ILS investors in a decade.
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The broker said over-placement on some deals was a positive sign for brokers, though reinsurance capacity is still very tight in some areas.
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Reinsurers are making some adjustments to secure target signings but appetite to grow is finely balanced.
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Sources said that there was still rating adequacy in the market, but that further pricing falls would be unsustainable.
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Anticipations of a tug-of-war around a ‘flat to slightly up’ pricing renewal have indeed come to fruition.
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Profits are expected to widen thanks to improved rates and higher average attachment points.
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Delegates at our annual London Market Conference (LMC) described the market as “transforming” and “exciting”.
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The revision reflects Swiss Re's "strongly improved financial performance and better capitalisation and leverage”, the ratings agency said.
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Does one party – the carrier or the cedant – have to lose out for the other to succeed?
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London’s insurance market is booming in some ways yet still has multiple challenges to address.
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The ratings agency said the change reflected its expectation that the carrier would post improving underwriting results in the next two years.
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The mood at the association’s annual meeting is vastly more congenial this year, but challenges remain, particularly around long-tail lines.
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With US third-quarter reporting season being well underway, the results so far highlight further runway for the hard property E&S market.
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The revised status follows the recent announcement that R&Q Insurance Holdings has agreed a sale of its Accredited program.
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E+S Rück said that natural disasters and persistently high inflation have again "taken a toll" on the German insurance industry.
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Loss severity and prior-year development in US casualty dominated discussion at The Broadmoor.
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The Corporation used its latest market message to call out what it saw as an “underwhelming” approach from specialty insurers to changing conditions and “moronic” D&O underwriting.
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The paradox of “the best reinsurance market in years” is that there are still question marks over who wants a piece of it.
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The executive also recommitted Aon to its mission around creating net new markets – including growing IP – in the wake of the Vesttoo issues.
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Despite a successful upstreaming of cat risk to primary insurers, reinsurers still have multiple factors to worry about in the run-up to 1 January 2024.
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Key trends the credit agencies will be monitoring include inflation, redistribution of losses and the investment bounce-back.
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The ratings agency also affirmed Swiss Re’s ‘AA-’ rating, with the carrier expected to maintain an ‘AA-’ rating through 2024.
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Ongoing rate rises in property are expected to be offset by decreases in specialty lines and casualty.
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The hammering of hailstorm losses that US homeowners’ carriers reported for H1 will drive positive change in property markets.
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The broker said that rates were largely flat thanks to insurer appetite and competition.
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Loss-free accounts were generally up 20%-50% at renewal, the reinsurance broker said.
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A “little flurry” of new capacity helped the mid-year renewals as reinsurers pushed to deploy at the last chance for 2023.
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Reinsurers began relaxing limits on US property exclusions, but the lack of new start-ups points towards stability amid a more orderly market, the broker forecast.
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Despite reinsurers’ concerns over social inflation and loss trends, capacity remains abundant in both quota share and XoL deals, sources say.
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